Tracking the Curve

What’s noteworthy in this week’s COVID-19 data? 

Note: Due to the current COVID-19 landscape, we decided to stop updating Tracking the Curve, three years after the pandemic hit Colorado.

Eagle County has reported 18,873 COVID-19 cases since March 2020 when the pandemic started. Garfield County has added 18,069 cases, while Pitkin County has recorded 8,086 cases.

As of March 22, four wastewater treatment plants in the valley—Aspen, Snowmass Village, Basalt and Glenwood Springs—are participating in the Colorado’s COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring project.

Glenwood’s load remained close to 90,000 copies per liter as of March 22. Meanwhile, Aspen’s load increased from 247,000 on March 9 to 1.49 million copies on March 13. Snowmass Village recorded an increase in copies from 515,000 on March 6 to 133,000 on March 13.

Read our story about COVID-19 wastewater data to learn more. You also can find more information about the data in our “Wastewater Data” section.

About 20% of Pitkin County’s entire population has already received their Omicron booster, against around 15% of Garfield and Eagle counties’ full population. Over 47% of the individuals aged 65 and older in each of the three counties have already received their second booster.

As of March 22, Pitkin County’s’ COVID seven-day new-case incidence rate is hovering at 6 per 100,000. Eagle County’s test-positivity rate has the highest rate of the three counties with 11.7% on March 22.

It is worth noting that the rise in usage of at-home tests and the reduction in free PCR testing in the valley are impacting positivity rates.

As testing sites in our valley have changed and more at-home testing kits are being used, Tracking the Curve is no longer reporting data on the number of tests by county. Please, visit Pitkin, Eagle and Garfield counties websites for more information.

Colorado has added about 1.7 million cases since the pandemic started.

The Northwestern region of Colorado, which includes Pitkin, Eagle, Garfield, Clear Creek, Grand, Gilpin, Jackson, Moffat, Rio Blanco and Summit counties, is identified as of March 22 as having an “Elevated incidence plateau” by the state, which means that COVID incidence is high but remaining stable. A month before, the state’s dial identified the region as “sustained decline” which meant that COVID incidence was decreasing.

Colorado has recorded 76,614 COVID-19 hospitalizations since 2020.

The U.S. has reported about 103.8 million cases and more than one million deaths in the country, according to the CDC.

There are possible discrepancies in the data published by the counties and the state as they don’t necessarily use the same data collection techniques. Also, CDPHE and local public health departments may process and report COVID-19 data on a different day, resulting in a lag in the data.

What does wastewater data tell us?

Currently, four wastewater treatment plants in the valley—Aspen, Snowmass Village, Basalt and Glenwood Springs—are participating in the Colorado’s COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring project. Aspen Journalism published a story about COVID-19 wastewater data and how our local public health departments are using that information.

The data collected by the Aspen Consolidated Sanitation District shows that the number of copies of the virus spiked in August at 832,000 copies per liter. But it’s on Jan. 6, 2022 that the Aspen treatment plant recorded its highest level with over 2.7 million copies.

Glenwood’s load remained close to 90,000 copies per liter as of March 22. Meanwhile, Aspen’s load increased from 247,000 on March 9 to 1.49 million copies on March 13. Snowmass Village recorded an increase in copies from 515,000 on March 6 to 133,000 on March 13.

What’s the local vaccination rate?

More than 4 million people are fully vaccinated in Colorado.

According to CDPHE data, about 295,500 vaccine doses have been administered in Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin counties.

According to CDPHE, 99.9% of Pitkin and Eagle County residents aged 5 and older have received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to 77.7 % of Garfield County 5+ residents and 82.5% of Garfield County 12+ residents. That makes Pitkin and Eagle counties two of the four most-vaccinated counties in Colorado, along with San Miguel and San Juan counties.

There is still a wide racial disparity in vaccine uptake. On March 28, 2022, 72% of white people and 41% of the Latino population have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Garfield County. That 31-point disparity has widened since Jan. 27, when 68% of the white population and 37% Latinos had received at least one shot in Garfield County, which was a 22-point gap. On May 6, 2022, when Aspen Journalism published a story on the vaccination lag for the Latino population in the region, 36% of the white population and 21% of Latinos had received at least one shot in Garfield County, which was a 15-point gap.

Seventy-five percent of the white population in Pitkin County has received at least one shot as of March 28, 2022, while 35% of Latinos have received at least one dose of vaccine. About 30% of the vaccines administered in Pitkin County were to individuals with an “unknown” race or ethnicity. In our update of January 2022, about 31% of Latinos and 74% of whites had received at least one dose. This means that the gap has slightly narrowed from 43 to 40 percentage points.

In Eagle County, as of March 28, 2022 as a share of total population, most whites (the data indicates 102% of whites, but not every individual gets counted in the Census) have received at least one dose, while 41% of Latinos have received at least one shot, which is a wider gap than 97% for whites and 41% of Latinos in January. It also bears noting that the state’s data on vaccine uptake by race includes large portions of individuals registering as race “unknown” — about 13% in Garfield County and about 15% in Eagle County, of all vaccines given as of Jan. 27, 2022.

Where are the COVID-19 cases in Colorado?

The state’s northwest region, which includes Pitkin, Eagle and Garfield counties, was classified on March 22 “Elevated incidence plateau.” This means that “Incidence is high but remaining stable,” according to CDPHE.

How many people are in the hospital?

CPDHE is now updating hospitalization data weekly. During the week of March 21, CDPHE reported 192 patients currently hospitalized for COVID-19 in Colorado. There have been more than 76,000 people who have been hospitalized for COVID-19 across the state since March 2020.

How many people have died from COVID-19?

There have been more than 15,000 fatalities due to COVID-19 since March 2020.

Since March 2020, nine Pitkin County, 39 Eagle County and 105 Garfield County residents died from COVID-19.

Different methodologies exist at the state and county level to count COVID-related deaths. Unlike the state, Pitkin County does not make a distinction in its total death count between deaths “among” cases and deaths “due to” COVID. According to the state public health department, while deaths “due to” COVID include deaths where COVID was the main factor, deaths “among” COVID cases include any deaths of an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 30 days preceding their death. They may have died of COVID or some other causes.

Additional data sources and media Selection

Selection from John Hopkins Data is not included anymore as John Hopkins stopped updating its maps on Sept. 21, 2022.

Selection from The COVID Tracking Project is not included anymore as the project ended on March 7, 2021.

“MAP: Where Colorado’s coronavirus cases, deaths have been identified” The Colorado Sun

“Colorado Covid Map and Case Count” The New York Times

“Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries fight Covid-19 resurgence” Financial Times

“Covid-19 pandemic: Tracking the global coronavirus outbreak” BBC