Welcome back to The Runoff, Aspen Journalism’s Water Desk newsletter providing insider news and water-related updates you won’t read anywhere else. Aspen Journalism is following two of the biggest stories in Colorado River news – a historically bad snowpack and record high temps, and the post-2026 management of the river – and how they are intersecting. Find these updates under The Briefing and catch up on the most recent reporting from our water desk, along with additional context and updates on these stories, under The Recap.
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– Heather Sackett
Water Desk Editor and Reporter
Drought operations coming soon
Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism
Colorado River watchers can expect to know a lot more about what this year’s management will look like in the next couple of weeks. The pivotal April streamflow forecasts/water supply outlooks are set to drop next week, after which we will have a clearer picture of just how grim this year will be. And the Bureau of Reclamation’s April 24-month study will have new (probably worse than March) projections for Powell inflow this year.
Water managers will also lay out this year’s plan for action under the Drought Operations Agreement in mid-April, according to Upper Colorado River Commission officials. It’s already known that releases will be coming from Upper Basin reservoirs (Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo) to prop up Powell, but officials haven’t said yet exactly when and how much from each reservoir. But March snowpack and runoff projections were too optimistic and reservoir releases under DROA alone won’t be enough to keep Powell from falling below critical elevations. “When you look at the mid-month that we just saw, that hole increases to 1.7 million acre-feet,” UCRC Director Chuck Cullom said at a March 24 UCRC meeting. “The additional actions under 6e are likely necessary.”
Cullom was referring to a provision in a 2024 supplemental agreement that could take Powell releases down to as little as 6 million acre-feet. Cullom said Upper Basin officials and Reclamation have been meeting to craft a DROA framework, which the UCRC plans to consider at a special April 24 meeting, with operations beginning May 1.
Colorado’s “qualifying activities”
At the UCRC meeting March 24, we also learned a bit more about how Colorado could contribute to a pool of water in Lake Powell. Colorado has two projects this year that qualify under a provisional accounting MOU that allows the Upper Basin states to “get credit” for water conserved. Both of them involve paying Front Range transmountain diverters to forgo water they take from the Colorado River basin. Pueblo Water will forgo about 900 acre-feet out of the Ewing Ditch from Piney Creek (a tributary of the Eagle River near Ski Cooper) and the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District will forgo about 320 acre-feet to the Larkspur Ditch from Marshall Creek. “These are important pilots for understanding how East Slope entities can participate in temporary, voluntary and compensated programs,” state officials said in an email.
It’s unclear exactly where the funding will come from to pay the participating water users. State officials said they will likely be funded through state funds set aside for species conservation, as the projects will benefit critical habitat reaches, and through state funds appropriated for special projects related to the Upper Colorado River Commission. Pueblo Water had wanted to participate in the System Conservation Pilot Program in 2023 and 2024, but the $509 per acre-foot the UCRC was offering at that time wasn’t enough because Pueblo Water could lease the water to other Front Range entities for more than that. Pueblo Water Division Manager of Water Resources Alan Ward said contracts are not yet finalized, but that the water provider expects to get about $900 per acre-foot, which works out to about $810,000. It just goes to show the generally higher value of water on the Front Range than the Western Slope and the prices that might have to be paid to entice the Front Range to participate in a longer term conservation program, should one come about.
Shoshone case gets new judge
Credit: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism Credit: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
The River District and its supporters have requested and received a new judge in the Shoshone water court case. The case was originally being overseen by District Court Judge and Division 5 Water Judge Laura Makar. But on March 19, Makar filed an order disqualifying herself (procedurally weird, but this is how it’s done) after the River District filed a motion requesting her recusal. Before she was a judge, Makar was the Pitkin County Deputy Attorney and was involved in issues related to Shoshone. According to the River District’s motion, Makar should have been disqualified because she has knowledge of disputed facts in the Shoshone case, previously served as a lawyer in matters directly related to the controversy in the Shoshone case and served in government employment during which she participated in disputed matters relevant to the Shoshone case. Through the water court process, the River District is looking to add an instream flow water right to the current hydropower right of the Shoshone plant. The case has 60-some opposers, one of which is Pitkin County, Makar’s previous employer. Pitkin County officials have also expressed concern that the Shoshone deal could harm the upper Roaring Fork River. The Shoshone case has been reassigned to District Court Judge Susan Ryan.
Ruedi unlikely to fill
Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism Credit: Heather Sackett
The Bureau of Reclamation is predicting that Ruedi Reservoir, on the Fryingpan River, won’t fill this year. The April forecast shows just 39% of average inflow this year, down from 51% of average in March, reflecting the poor snowpack in the surrounding mountains. Tim Miller, a hydrologist with Reclamation who operates Ruedi, said this year will probably see the lowest levels since the similarly bad drought year of 2002. A special pool of water for endangered fish that can be made available in four out of five years won’t be available this year. And it could mean bad news for the Aspen Yacht Club, whose boat ramp may not be accessible with low water levels. Even the U.S. Forest Service boat launch may not be accessible by the end of the summer, Miller said. “It’s going to be bad, it’s going to be horrible,” Miller said. “Nothing happened in March. It was dismal for accumulating snow.” Perhaps counterintuitively, the Fryingpan River below the reservoir could see higher-than-normal flows this season because of all the water that will be released to meet downstream demands in a super dry year.
Valley-wide watering standards
With high temps and scarce water supplies, most water providers in the Roaring Fork Valley are sure to have restrictions and conservation measures in place for outdoor watering this summer. The Ruedi Water and Power Authority is reviving an effort at uniting the entire valley on one watering schedule. In 2022, RWAPA gave its support to a set of unified permanent watering standards aimed at limiting outdoor watering to between 6 p.m. and 9 a.m. three days a week for customers of Aspen, Basalt, Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, Snowmass and Mid-Valley Metropolitan District. But that proposal has not been officially adopted by all water providers. New RWAPA Executive Director Paula Stepp is bringing back the effort and hopes to have something in place by this summer. “Do we do exactly the same valley-wide so there’s no confusion on when you’re supposed to water the lawn?” she said. “Or do we just make sure the public is aware of each town’s current water conservation.” Part of the push will be a public outreach and education campaign. Stepp said she is meeting with each water provider to discuss the details.
Water users reverse vote on HUP surplus
Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism
In another sign of worsening conditions in Colorado, HUP water users have voted no to surplus releases, reversing an earlier yes vote. The Historic User Pool is a 66,000 acre-foot pool in Green Mountain Reservoir, managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and earmarked for Western Slope water users. Reclamation holds weekly calls in the summer with a bunch of water users on both sides of the divide to manage the timing and amount of releases. After HUP needs are met, there is often an annual “surplus,” which means the remaining water can be released for endangered fish in the 15-mile reach near Grand Junction. After initially agreeing to surplus releases for the fish, Reclamation called for another vote from water managers on March 30. After running the numbers for late March, they showed much drier conditions than at the start of the month. Water managers decided to stop the surplus release this spring, with Reclamation instead prioritizing trying to fill the HUP pool in the reservoir.
Denver Water, Xcel enact plan to ease shortages
As part of the agreement, Denver Water will make available to entities on the Western Slope 10% of the water it is able to divert as a result of the call reduction.
Upper Basin states test methods to fill Powell pool
Colorado still does not seem to have the policies in place to implement a large-scale, traditional conservation program in the near future.
Aspen activist wants ‘rights of nature’ for the Roaring Fork River
A handful of Colorado communities have passed resolutions that give rights to local waterways: Grand Lake to its namesake body of water, Ridgway to the Uncompahgre River and most recently, Durango to the Animas River.
Colorado River crisis fails to force deal from states
And if the states can’t reach an agreement by then, the federal government will impose its own management rules, doling out cutbacks that could trigger lawsuits from the states but would not go far enough to prevent the system from crashing.
West Divide proposes backup water plan for Crystal River
West Divide representatives have said they are not interested in a large storage project and are committed to maintaining the free-flowing nature of one of Colorado’s last undammed rivers.
Cities, water providers across the state want seat at the table in Shoshone water court case
But at least 23 of these “opposers” say in their statements that they are actually in favor of the deal and filed the documents in order to monitor and weigh in on the case.
Pitkin County looks to boost Roaring Fork streamflows with water purchase
A memo outlining the deal noted that in order to purchase the Twin Lakes shares, the seller also required the county to buy the Fountain shares, which are estimated to yield about 26 acre-feet per year, but that water is not decreed for use on the west side of the Continental Divide.
Colorado River experts say some management options don’t go far enough to address scarcity, climate change
This winter’s dismal snowpack and dire projections about spring runoff underscore the urgency for the states to come up with an agreement for a new management paradigm.
Low reservoir levels main cause of toxic algae in Blue Mesa
The study also says maintaining a water-level elevation above 7,470 feet might help minimize the occurrence of these blooms.
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