The Runoff | Dismal flows, funding thaws & big decisions ahead

Welcome to The Runoff, where Aspen Journalism’s Water Desk provides insider news and water-related updates you won’t read anywhere else under The Briefing and additional context and updates on the most recent reporting from our water desk under The Recap. 

Thanks for going deeper with us and for supporting our nonprofit, in-depth, investigative reporting.

– Heather Sackett
Water Desk Editor and Reporter

Dismal spring runoff worse than forecast

Peak river flows have come and gone on the Western Slope, with most rivers seeing below normal peaks and currently running well below last year’s levels. According to Aspen Journalism’s real time local streamflow tracker, streams are flowing at 42-63% of normal in the Roaring Fork Watershed.

Streamflows peaked on June 3 or June 4 with the Roaring Fork River flowing as much as 3,050 cfs at Glenwood Springs, which was 87% of average peak flow, and the Colorado River running up to 11,400 cfs near the stateline the next day, which was 64% of normal.

As of June 18, the Colorado River is running at about 4,370 cfs at Glenwood Springs, or 43% of average, down from 5,640 cfs last week and from last year’s 13,000 cfs, while the Colorado flowed at 5,360 cfs near the Colorado-Utah stateline, or 33% of average.

For more river data, check out Aspen Journalism’s streamflow tracker.

According to the National Resources Conservation Service’s June 1 Water Supply Outlook report, statewide snowmelt was tracking about 10 days earlier than average and the streamflow forecasts for all Western Slope basins were below average and down from the April forecasts. 

The low streamflows are sure to affect reservoir levels. According to a June 11 update from Tim Miller, a hydrologist with the Bureau of Reclamation, Ruedi Reservoir on the Fryingpan River is no longer forecast to fill. The seasonal inflow forecast for June is 66% of average, a 34,000-acre-foot drop from the April forecast. Miller said the plan is to keep releases to a minimum until the third week in July when the Cameo call is expected to come on. The Aspen Yacht Club boat ramp should be useable through the end of August. 

According to the June forecasts from Reclamation, spring runoff into Lake Powell is forecast to be 45% of average, down from April’s forecast of 67%. Lake Powell is currently about 33% full. 

Reclamation releases funding for Grand Valley project

On June 11, a press release from the Bureau of Reclamation announced new funding for Orchard Mesa Irrigation District to improve its irrigation infrastructure. But it’s not new funding. It’s old funding that was promised to OMID in January during the final days of the Biden administration through the Inflation Reduction Act. Days later, the Trump administration paused the disbursement of these funds, which were earmarked for projects that provide environmental benefits and address issues caused by drought, known by the shorthand B2E. That meant 17 projects on the Western Slope were potentially in jeopardy.

Now, Reclamation seems to be releasing some of this money, jumpstarting projects that had been paused. OMID will get $10 million to pipe open canals and an additional $1.5 million to install new flow meters. Jackie Fisher, general manager of OMID, said she’s gearing up administratively to begin the projects and that shovels will be in the ground later this year.

“I would like to think (the funding release) is because our legislators and all of our delegation has pushed to get some of that money to the Upper Basin,” she said.

The largest chunk of change promised-then-paused in the Upper Basin was $40 million toward the Colorado River Water Conservation District’s purchase of the Shoshone Water rights. River District representatives said they are hoping the OMID funding signals some forward momentum but that they have not heard anything new about the status of the Shoshone funding.

Turning hindsight into foresight

Several journalists have already thoughtfully covered the June 5 and 6 annual Law Conference on Natural Resources at CU Boulder, hosted by the Getches-Wilkinson Center and the Water & Tribes Initiative.

Here are some of my takeaways: 

When it came to the post-2026 negotiations and the lack of a consensus so far among the seven states, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Acting Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Scott Cameron echoed what federal officials have been saying all along: A seven-state agreement for how Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be operated and cuts shared is the goal, but if there is no agreement, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum will exercise his responsibility as water master. 

Cameron also said Reclamation does not feel bound by the set of alternatives floated last year by the Biden administration.

“They certainly contain some good ideas, but they do not include a number of ideas that might also be helpful,” he told conference attendees. “We are approaching a selection of draft EIS alternatives with fresh eyes and open ears, actively soliciting feedback from the states, tribal nations and a wide variety of stakeholders.”

Cameron said he doesn’t think basin states talks need an external mediator, but relayed Burgum’s philosophy about the feds’ involvement in the deal making, which was that he wants “this department’s political leadership to be personally, intensely and constantly involved in discussions with the seven basin states.”

Former Denver Water CEO Jim Lochhead compared the post-2026 process to the process that created the 2007 guidelines, which are now expiring. He said in 2007, it was very clear that the states were not the decision-makers; it was a federally led process. This time around, the feds have been more standoffish and are deferring to the states, he said. The 2007 talks also often had over 50 stakeholders in the room, in contrast to the current negotiations, which Lochhead compared to conclave where everyone is waiting for the black or white smoke to come out of the seven state negotiations.

“In 2007, key water users, contractors, districts and municipalities were all in the room during the negotiations,” Lochhead said. “We had a small group that would be tasked with maybe coming up with proposals to the group, but having all those key stakeholders in the room allowed for real time consultation and causes and advice to the principals in terms of the positions that were being negotiated.”

Colorado State University water and climate scientist Brad Udall sounded the alarm once again that climate change equals water change. Temperatures are on track to warm by three degrees Celsius — or nine degrees Fahrenheit — by 2100. Scientists have shown that every 1 degree Celsius of warming results in a 9% reduction in river flows. Udall said Colorado River managers should plan for a future with just 10 million acre-feet a year in runoff.

“Some of you think that your job description doesn’t include worrying about reducing greenhouse gas emissions or what might happen at 2100, or beyond. I disagree,” Udall told the room full of water managers. “I plead with you to get serious about figuring out how to reduce the emissions of your organization and even your own personal emissions. I agree that individual actions aren’t going to solve this, but they send a really strong signal to everyone around us.”

Nutrient Farm update

The Garfield County Planning Commission unanimously recommended denial of the Nutrient Farm PUD application on May 28. The source of water and whether there was enough of it were at the heart of some concerns about the development. Nutrient Farm owners planned to reopen an unused ditch to take water out of Canyon Creek to use on the property. To preserve the health of the smaller creek, Canyon Creek residents wanted Nutrient Farm to use water from the Colorado River instead.

According to a staff memo, the Division of Water Resources submitted on May 21 revised comments to the county saying they “not received sufficient information to render an opinion regarding whether the proposed water supply is adequate and will not cause material injury to existing water rights.” 

“Due to the most recent referral comments from the Division of Water Resources, the application does not fully demonstrate an adequate and long term water supply,” the memo reads.

City of Aspen aims to reduce water use

On June 10, the city council declared a Stage 1 water shortage with the goal to voluntarily reduce water use by 10%. Residents can adopt an odd-even outdoor watering schedule and there could be increases in water rates for tiers 3 and 4, the largest water users. Public facilities will also limit irrigation of public parks and golf courses, reduce street washing and suspend hydrant flushing.

The best way for cities to cut back on their water use is to reduce outdoor irrigation. Outdoor watering in Aspen is about 70% of the city’s total annual water use. To that end, the city is offering free irrigation assessments to its customers. Participants will receive a customized report of their systems with recommended improvements. The city is offering 50% rebates as a credit on their water bill, up to $2,500 for water customers that make these improvements. To sign up, go to aspen.gov. 

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